Saudi Arabia is facing a multi-day spell of unsettled weather, with the National Center for Meteorology (NCM) forecasting rainfall of varying intensity across several regions through Friday, September 25. The strongest conditions are expected in parts of the southwest, where heavy rain could be accompanied by flash flooding, hail, strong downdraft winds and sharply reduced visibility.
According to the NCM forecast carried by Saudi Gazette on Sunday, heavy rain is defined as rainfall of 10–50 millimetres per hour or more. Under those conditions, downdraft winds can reach 60 km/h or higher, visibility can fall to near zero, and some areas can see hail, flash floods and rough coastal conditions. The forecast also notes the possibility of waterspouts or tornado-like phenomena over coastal areas during the most severe storms.
Moderate rainfall, at 5–9 mm per hour, can also bring strong winds, reduced visibility, hail and localized flash flooding. Light rain is classified at 1–4 mm per hour. The distinction matters because the forecast varies substantially by region and by day, rather than describing a single uniform weather system affecting the entire country.
The highest rainfall risk is concentrated across Jazan, Asir and Al-Baha. In Jazan, the NCM identified areas including Al-Rayth, Harub, Al-Dayer, Al-Eidabi, Fayfa, Al-Aridah, Al-Harth, Al-Tuwal, Al-Darb, Baysh, Sabya, Damad, Abu Arish, Ahad Al-Masarihah and Samtah. These locations are expected to see periods of moderate to heavy rain as the weather pattern continues.
In Asir, the forecast covers Abha, Khamis Mushait, Ahad Rafidah, Sarat Abidah, Al-Harajah, Dhahran Al-Janub, Al-Farshah, Al-Namas, Tanomah, Rijal Almaa, Bareq, Mahayil Asir, Al-Majardah and Balqarn. The NCM expects conditions in parts of Asir to intensify on Sunday and again on Friday.
Al-Baha is also expected to receive moderate to heavy rainfall. The forecast includes Al-Baha city, Baljurashi, Al-Mandaq, Qilwah, Bani Hassan, Al-Qara, Al-Aqiq, Al-Hajrah and Ghamid Al-Zinad, with conditions expected to strengthen on Monday and Tuesday.
The outlook is more mixed in the Makkah region. Taif, Maysan, Adham and Al-Ardiyat are forecast to receive light to moderate rain, while Al-Kamil, Bahrah, Al-Jumum and Khulais could see moderate to heavy rainfall, particularly on Monday and Tuesday. Light to moderate rain is also forecast for Madinah, Al-Ula and Khaybar in the Madinah region, as well as Najran, Badr Al-Janub, Yadamah, Thar, Hubuna and Khubash in Najran Region.
Gulf News separately reported the same NCM outlook on Sunday, including the concentration of heavier rainfall over Jazan, Asir and Al-Baha and the potential for storms producing 10–50 mm of rain per hour or more. That independent report supports the broad forecast and the severe-weather thresholds cited in the Saudi Gazette account.
The NCM has urged residents and visitors to follow official weather updates and comply with instructions from relevant authorities. Because rainfall intensity and warnings can change quickly, the geographic details in this report should be read as a forecast issued on September 20 rather than as a guarantee that every listed location will experience severe conditions.
For motorists and people in flood-prone areas, the key risk is rapidly changing local conditions. Flash flooding can develop quickly after intense rainfall, especially around valleys, low-lying roads and drainage channels. The NCM’s continuing updates therefore remain the authoritative source for real-time warnings as the weather system develops through the week.
